Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
